BetaBetaDataset
To incorporate both likelihood of occurrence (short-term disease trends, water quality, etc..) and potential consequences (population exposure, service disruption, demographic vulnerability)and function as an early-warning tool for current and potential high-risk areas for water-borne diseases
This map identifies not only current high-risk areas but also locations that may become high risk within the next months due to reduced safe water availability, concentration of contaminants, and increased reliance on unsafe sources. This approach provides forward-looking alerts for emerging threats such as cholera and hepatitis A linked to climate stress.
Indicators used in the 2025 risk model: - Population density: including the existing collective shelters of displaced Syrians, and Informal Settlements. - Proximity to contamination sources: permanent/seasonal rivers and known polluted sites. - Access to functional water infrastructure: factoring real-time data on hostilities-related damage and drought impacts (2024–2025). - Reported WBD cases: MoPH ESU data, past and current year, weighted for the last 6 months. - Self-reported WBD symptoms: in Informal Settlements, within the last 6 months - Non-conforming water samples: % of tests failing LIBNOR standards, emphasizing results from the last 6 months. - Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI 2025): composite hazard driver (precipitation anomalies+ SPI+ SPEI, hydrogeological resilience, groundwater quality, land use/cover, population pressure). - Sanitation infrastructure functionality: access to sanitation and wastewater treatment plant operations (based on 2024 data) - Desludging service coverage: availability and frequency in Informal Settlements. - Population vulnerability profile: proportion of children under five, elderly, and other high-risk groups (proxy for severe disease impact).
The 2025 analysis was enhanced by integrating the Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) 2025, with the DVI layer being combined with existing population, surveillance, access, and environmental factors